| Geopolitics | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Polymarket | 17% | 66.8M | in 15w | — |
| Geopolitics | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Polymarket | 4% | 42.3M | in 15w | — |
| Geopolitics | Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Polymarket | 0% | 32.8M | in 15w | — |
| Geopolitics | Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Polymarket | 0% | 25.8M | in 15w | — |
| Geopolitics | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Polymarket | 5% | 21.8M | in 15w | — |
| Rates/Fed | No Fed rate cuts in 2026Polymarket | 95% | 8.4M | in 15w | — |
| Rates/Fed | 11 Fed rate cuts in 2026Polymarket | 0% | 5.3M | in 15w | — |
| Rates/Fed | 10 Fed rate cuts in 2026Polymarket | 0% | 5.0M | in 15w | — |
| Rates/Fed | 9 Fed rate cuts in 2026Polymarket | 0% | 4.3M | in 15w | — |
| Rates/Fed | 6 Fed rate cuts in 2026Polymarket | 0% | 4.2M | in 15w | — |
| Rates/Fed | 12+ Fed rate cuts in 2026Polymarket | 0% | 4.0M | in 15w | — |
| Rates/Fed | 7 Fed rate cuts in 2026Polymarket | 0% | 3.5M | in 15w | — |
| Rates/Fed | 8 Fed rate cuts in 2026Polymarket | 0% | 3.3M | in 15w | — |
| Rates/Fed | 2 Fed rate cuts in 2026Polymarket | 0% | 3.2M | in 15w | — |
| Rates/Fed | 1 Fed rate cut in 2026Polymarket | 2% | 3.2M | in 15w | — |
| Rates/Fed | 5 Fed rate cuts in 2026Polymarket | 0% | 3.0M | in 15w | — |
| Rates/Fed | 3 Fed rate cuts in 2026Polymarket | 0% | 2.9M | in 15w | — |
| Rates/Fed | 4 Fed rate cuts in 2026Polymarket | 0% | 2.7M | in 15w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed holds at the Oct 2026 meetingPolymarket | 44% | 2.1M | in 6w | — |
| Growth/Recession | US recession by end of 2026?Polymarket | 9% | 2.0M | in 19w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed hikes 25bps at the Oct 2026 meetingPolymarket | 55% | 1.7M | in 6w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed cuts 25bps at the Oct 2026 meetingPolymarket | 1% | 1.5M | in 6w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed cuts rates before 2027Kalshi | 5% | 1.3M | in 15w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed hikes 50+bps after the Oct 2026 meetingPolymarket | 1% | 1.1M | in 6w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed cuts 50+bps after the Oct 2026 meetingPolymarket | 0% | 1.1M | in 6w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed holds at the Oct 2026 meetingKalshi | 43% | 563k | in 6w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Polymarket | 3% | 367k | in 16w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed lower bound ≤2.75% before 2027Polymarket | 2% | 366k | in 15w | — |
| Inflation | Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?Polymarket | 9% | 333k | in 15w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed lower bound ≤3.0% before 2027Polymarket | 1% | 320k | in 15w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed hikes 25bps at the Dec 2026 meetingPolymarket | 68% | 297k | in 12w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?Polymarket | 3% | 231k | in 15w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed lower bound ≤2.5% before 2027Polymarket | 1% | 225k | in 15w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?Polymarket | 90% | 224k | in 19w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed cuts 25bps at the Dec 2026 meetingPolymarket | 2% | 222k | in 12w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed holds at the Dec 2026 meetingPolymarket | 31% | 212k | in 12w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?Polymarket | 7% | 206k | in 19w | — |
| Inflation | Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?Polymarket | 20% | 204k | in 15w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Will the Fed have an emergency meeting before Jan 1, 2027?Kalshi | 10% | 180k | in 15w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?Polymarket | 1% | 170k | in 7w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed cuts 50+bps after the Dec 2026 meetingPolymarket | 0% | 170k | in 12w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed hikes 50+bps after the Dec 2026 meetingPolymarket | 2% | 164k | in 12w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed upper bound ≥5.25% before 2027Polymarket | 3% | 143k | in 15w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?Polymarket | 9% | 142k | in 19w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed lower bound ≤0.25% before 2027Polymarket | 2% | 132k | in 15w | — |
| Growth/Recession | When will the next U.S. recession start?Kalshi | 3% | 131k | in 15w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed upper bound ≥4.25% before 2027Polymarket | 69% | 130k | in 15w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be 9% or higher?Polymarket | 1% | 118k | in 19w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed holds at the Dec 2026 meetingKalshi | 31% | 112k | in 12w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed lower bound ≤0.5% before 2027Polymarket | 2% | 107k | in 15w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?Polymarket | 45% | 95k | in 15w | — |
| Commodities/Oil | Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >116.99 on Nov 3, 2026?Kalshi | 12% | 89k | in 7w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 6.0% and 7.0%?Polymarket | 0% | 88k | in 19w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed lower bound ≤3.25% before 2027Polymarket | 5% | 82k | in 15w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 3.0% and 4.0%?Polymarket | 1% | 81k | in 19w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?Polymarket | 6% | 81k | in 19w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed upper bound ≥4.75% before 2027Polymarket | 5% | 81k | in 15w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?Polymarket | 6% | 80k | in 19w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 1.0% and 2.0%?Polymarket | 0% | 76k | in 19w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will real GDP increase by more than 4.0% in Q3 2026?Kalshi | 19% | 75k | in 6w | — |
| Inflation | Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?Polymarket | 5% | 69k | in 15w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be below 1.0%?Polymarket | 0% | 68k | in 19w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 7.0% and 8.0%?Polymarket | 0% | 65k | in 19w | — |
| Inflation | Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026?Polymarket | 3% | 60k | in 15w | — |
| Commodities/Oil | Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.7m barrels per day in 2026?Polymarket | 3% | 60k | in 23w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?Polymarket | 5% | 57k | in 15w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Bank of England rate hike in 2026?Polymarket | 84% | 56k | in 15w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed upper bound ≥5.5% before 2027Polymarket | 3% | 55k | in 15w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 8.0% and 9.0%?Polymarket | 1% | 55k | in 19w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will real GDP increase by more than 3.5% in Q4 2026?Kalshi | 13% | 52k | in 19w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?Polymarket | 5% | 51k | in 15w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026?Polymarket | 4% | 51k | in 19w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?Polymarket | 10% | 49k | in 15w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?Polymarket | 44% | 47k | in 6w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 2.0% and 3.0%?Polymarket | 0% | 46k | in 19w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Polymarket | 84% | 45k | in 12w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% before 2027?Polymarket | 2% | 43k | in 15w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.8% and 1.1%?Polymarket | 56% | 43k | in 6w | — |
| Inflation | Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?Polymarket | 44% | 43k | in 18w | — |
| Rates/Fed | No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Polymarket | 82% | 42k | in 6w | — |
| Inflation | Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2026?Polymarket | 3% | 42k | in 15w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed lower bound ≤2.25% before 2027Polymarket | 2% | 42k | in 15w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed holds at the Jan 2027 meetingKalshi | 61% | 29k | in 19w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Will the Bank of England raise the Bank Rate before 2027?Kalshi | 83% | 13k | in 15w | — |
| Commodities/Oil | How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year?Kalshi | 88% | 10k | in 15w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed holds at the Mar 2027 meetingKalshi | 67% | 7k | in 26w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed funds >3.25% after the Mar 2027 meetingKalshi | 84% | 5k | in 26w | — |
| Inflation | Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in November 2026?Kalshi | 35% | 3k | in 12w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Will the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread be above 1.00% between Issuance and December 31, 2026?Kalshi | 21% | 3k | in 15w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will above 0 jobs be added in October 2026?Kalshi | 82% | 3k | in 7w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.9% in October?Kalshi | 82% | 3k | in 7w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 be above 8%?Kalshi | 91% | 2k | in 6w | — |
| Inflation | Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.9% for the year ending in December 2026?Kalshi | 19% | 2k | in 17w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will above 125000 jobs be added in November 2026?Kalshi | 25% | 2k | in 11w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in November?Kalshi | 62% | 1k | in 11w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed funds >6.00% after the Jan 2027 meetingKalshi | 50% | — | in 19w | — |