| Geopolitics | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Polymarket | 18% | 76.7M | in 9w | — |
| Geopolitics | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Polymarket | 2% | 45.5M | in 9w | — |
| Geopolitics | Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Polymarket | 0% | 32.8M | in 8w | — |
| Geopolitics | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Polymarket | 2% | 27.2M | in 9w | — |
| Geopolitics | Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Polymarket | 0% | 26.0M | in 8w | — |
| Elections/Politics | Trump out as President before 2027?Polymarket | 4% | 13.6M | in 9w | — |
| Rates/Fed | No Fed rate cuts in 2026Polymarket | 97% | 9.4M | in 9w | — |
| Rates/Fed | 11 Fed rate cuts in 2026Polymarket | 0% | 5.3M | in 9w | — |
| Rates/Fed | 10 Fed rate cuts in 2026Polymarket | 0% | 5.0M | in 9w | — |
| Rates/Fed | 9 Fed rate cuts in 2026Polymarket | 0% | 4.3M | in 9w | — |
| Rates/Fed | 6 Fed rate cuts in 2026Polymarket | 0% | 4.2M | in 9w | — |
| Rates/Fed | 12+ Fed rate cuts in 2026Polymarket | 0% | 4.2M | in 9w | — |
| Rates/Fed | 1 Fed rate cut in 2026Polymarket | 1% | 3.7M | in 9w | — |
| Rates/Fed | 7 Fed rate cuts in 2026Polymarket | 0% | 3.5M | in 9w | — |
| Rates/Fed | 2 Fed rate cuts in 2026Polymarket | 0% | 3.5M | in 9w | — |
| Rates/Fed | 8 Fed rate cuts in 2026Polymarket | 0% | 3.3M | in 9w | — |
| Rates/Fed | 5 Fed rate cuts in 2026Polymarket | 0% | 3.0M | in 9w | — |
| Rates/Fed | 3 Fed rate cuts in 2026Polymarket | 0% | 3.0M | in 9w | — |
| Rates/Fed | 4 Fed rate cuts in 2026Polymarket | 0% | 2.8M | in 9w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed holds at the Dec 2026 meetingPolymarket | 26% | 2.6M | in 5w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed hikes 25bps at the Dec 2026 meetingPolymarket | 73% | 2.6M | in 5w | — |
| Growth/Recession | US recession by end of 2026?Polymarket | 6% | 2.4M | in 13w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed cuts 25bps at the Dec 2026 meetingPolymarket | 1% | 2.2M | in 5w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed cuts 50+bps after the Dec 2026 meetingPolymarket | 0% | 1.9M | in 5w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed cuts rates before 2027Kalshi | 3% | 1.7M | in 9w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed hikes 50+bps after the Dec 2026 meetingPolymarket | 2% | 1.5M | in 5w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Polymarket | 73% | 1.3M | in 5w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed holds at the Dec 2026 meetingKalshi | 27% | 883k | in 5w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Polymarket | 1% | 448k | in 13w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed lower bound ≤2.75% before 2027Polymarket | 2% | 380k | in 8w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed hikes 25bps at the Jan 2027 meetingPolymarket | 26% | 349k | in 12w | — |
| Inflation | Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?Polymarket | 8% | 344k | in 9w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed lower bound ≤3.0% before 2027Polymarket | 2% | 325k | in 8w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed holds at the Jan 2027 meetingPolymarket | 70% | 293k | in 12w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?Polymarket | 2% | 262k | in 9w | — |
| Inflation | Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?Polymarket | 18% | 256k | in 9w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?Polymarket | 96% | 247k | in 13w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed lower bound ≤2.5% before 2027Polymarket | 2% | 234k | in 8w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?Polymarket | 10% | 230k | in 9w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?Polymarket | 2% | 218k | in 13w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed cuts 50+bps after the Jan 2027 meetingPolymarket | 1% | 194k | in 12w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Will the Fed have an emergency meeting before Jan 1, 2027?Kalshi | 4% | 190k | in 9w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?Polymarket | 3% | 174k | in 13w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed cuts 25bps at the Jan 2027 meetingPolymarket | 2% | 173k | in 12w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Polymarket | 72% | 165k | in 5w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Polymarket | 25% | 164k | in 5w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed upper bound ≥4.25% before 2027Polymarket | 71% | 151k | in 8w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed hikes 25bps at the Jan 2027 meetingKalshi | 25% | 151k | in 12w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed upper bound ≥5.25% before 2027Polymarket | 2% | 143k | in 8w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed lower bound ≤0.25% before 2027Polymarket | 2% | 133k | in 8w | — |
| Growth/Recession | When will the next U.S. recession start?Kalshi | 0% | 131k | in 8w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?Polymarket | 5% | 129k | in 9w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed hikes 50+bps after the Jan 2027 meetingPolymarket | 1% | 120k | in 12w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?Polymarket | 3% | 119k | in 9w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be 9% or higher?Polymarket | 0% | 118k | in 13w | — |
| Inflation | Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in November 2026?Kalshi | 41% | 112k | in 5w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed lower bound ≤0.5% before 2027Polymarket | 2% | 111k | in 8w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?Polymarket | 1% | 110k | in 13w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 6.0% and 7.0%?Polymarket | 0% | 92k | in 13w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027?Polymarket | 36% | 92k | in 8w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?Polymarket | 22% | 89k | in 9w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?Polymarket | 2% | 88k | in 13w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 3.0% and 4.0%?Polymarket | 1% | 88k | in 13w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed lower bound ≤3.25% before 2027Polymarket | 2% | 83k | in 8w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed upper bound ≥4.75% before 2027Polymarket | 2% | 82k | in 8w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?Polymarket | 82% | 81k | in 9w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 1.0% and 2.0%?Polymarket | 0% | 77k | in 13w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?Polymarket | 64% | 75k | in 5w | — |
| Inflation | Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in December 2026?Kalshi | 68% | 75k | in 10w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement?Polymarket | 37% | 74k | in 5w | — |
| Inflation | Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?Polymarket | 3% | 70k | in 9w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be below 1.0%?Polymarket | 0% | 68k | in 13w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027?Polymarket | 12% | 68k | in 8w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?Polymarket | 5% | 66k | in 8w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?Polymarket | 62% | 66k | in 12w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 7.0% and 8.0%?Polymarket | 0% | 65k | in 13w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Bank of England rate hike in 2026?Polymarket | 98% | 65k | in 9w | — |
| Inflation | Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?Polymarket | 57% | 63k | in 11w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% before 2027?Polymarket | 17% | 63k | in 8w | — |
| Inflation | Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026?Polymarket | 1% | 61k | in 9w | — |
| Commodities/Oil | Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.7m barrels per day in 2026?Polymarket | 2% | 61k | in 17w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed upper bound ≥5.5% before 2027Polymarket | 2% | 59k | in 8w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?Polymarket | 5% | 59k | in 8w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.8% before 2027?Polymarket | 62% | 55k | in 9w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will real GDP increase by more than 3.5% in Q1 2027?Kalshi | 12% | 55k | in 25w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 8.0% and 9.0%?Polymarket | 0% | 55k | in 13w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.45% before 2027?Polymarket | 36% | 55k | in 8w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?Polymarket | 3% | 55k | in 13w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027?Polymarket | 5% | 55k | in 8w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026?Polymarket | 2% | 54k | in 13w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will real GDP increase by more than 3.5% in Q4 2026?Kalshi | 30% | 53k | in 12w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed hikes 25bps at the Mar 2027 meetingKalshi | 47% | 26k | in 19w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed funds >3.50% after the Apr 2027 meetingKalshi | 94% | 24k | in 25w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed hikes >25bps at the Apr 2027 meetingKalshi | 2% | 23k | in 25w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Will the Bank of England raise the Bank Rate before 2027?Kalshi | 99% | 15k | in 9w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed funds >4.25% after the Mar 2027 meetingKalshi | 75% | 14k | in 19w | — |
| Commodities/Oil | How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year?Kalshi | 87% | 12k | in 9w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 5.0% in November?Kalshi | 1% | 6k | in 5w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Japan recession in 2026?Polymarket | 9% | 4k | in 26w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Will the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread be above 1.00% between Issuance and December 31, 2026?Kalshi | 2% | 3k | in 8w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will above 125000 jobs be added in November 2026?Kalshi | 14% | 2k | in 5w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed funds >6.00% after the Jan 2027 meetingKalshi | 10% | 88 | in 12w | — |