Thesis baskets

Named macro views, each a basket of live markets. Combined odds are the joint probability of every leg resolving as stated - independence assumed, so treat as a bound, not gospel.

Recession in 2026

combined

Growth rolls over and the Fed is forced to ease.

YESUS recession in 20269%
YESFed cuts rates before 202712%

Soft landing

11%

combined

No recession, and the Fed still eases.

NONo US recession in 202691%
YESFed cuts rates before 202712%

Higher for longer

81%

combined

No recession and the Fed holds through 2026.

NONo US recession in 202691%
YESNo Fed rate cuts in 202689%

Hard landing

combined

Recession alongside a rising unemployment rate.

YESUS recession in 20269%
YESUnemployment reaches 5%+ in 20267%

Scenario Builder

Pick two or more markets to read the joint probability of all resolving YES, and of at least one. Both assume independence - real markets are often correlated, so treat these as bounds, not gospel.

Select two or more markets below to build a scenario.

Hide longshots (<2% or >98%)107 markets

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?22%Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?4%Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?19%Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?2%Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?8%Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?12%Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?3%Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?3%Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?21%Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?46%Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?2%Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?14%Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?9%Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?3%Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?9%Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?89%Fed rate hike in 2026?68%Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?43%Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?55%Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?2%Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?8%US recession by end of 2026?9%Will the Federal Reserve cut rates before 2027?12%Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?56%Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?63%Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?3%Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?4%Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?14%Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?57%Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?66%Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?43%Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?12%Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?87%Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?28%Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?4%Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?7%Will the Fed have an emergency meeting before Jan 1, 2027?11%Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in July 2026?27%Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027?3%Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?24%Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027?3%Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?6%Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?10%Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?23%Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?69%Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?32%Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?6%Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed'56%Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?6%Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in July?8%Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?8%Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027?5%Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?23%Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?11%Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their December 2027 meeting?7%Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >116.99 on Nov 3, 2026?7%Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?8%No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting?98%Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?4%Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July?66%Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?37%Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.7m barrels per day in 2026?3%Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?88%Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?68%Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July?34%Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July?41%Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026?3%Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027?3%Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?7%Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2027 meeting?8%Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their July 2027 meeting?3%Will above 30000 jobs be added in July 2026?84%Will the Federal Reserve raise the target range for the federal funds rate befor69%Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed'86%Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed'53%Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their April 2027 meeting?8%Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their June 2027 meeting?5%Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their January 2027 meeting?64%Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 77.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 4, 2026?95%Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their September 2027 meeting?22%Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?34%Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed'82%How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year?82%Will above 125000 jobs be added in September 2026?39%Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed'58%Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed'93%Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their March 2027 meeting?66%Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.4% in September?19%Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.4% in August?16%Japan recession in 2026?31%Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.3% for the year ending in August 2026?2%Will the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread be above 1.00% between Issuance an22%Will above 0 jobs be added in October 2026?78%Will real GDP increase by more than 2.5% in Q3 2026?58%Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in November 20230%Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in October?71%Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their January 2028 meeting?18%Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 86.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 5, 2026?6%Will above 125000 jobs be added in November 2026?17%Will real GDP increase by more than 1.5% in Q4 2026?74%Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in September 2014%Will real GDP increase by more than 2.0% in Q1 2027?52%Will above 0 jobs be added in August 2026?91%Will real GDP increase by more than 2.0% in Q2 2027?50%Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.5% in November?29%Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of21%ISM Manufacturing PMI in Aug 2026?11%