Timeline

Term structure of priced macro risk: every market laid out by when it resolves, carrying its implied probability. Dot size = volume.

Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?
Nov '2691%
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?
Nov '268%
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?
Nov '2698%
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?
Nov '262%
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?
Nov '2686%
Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?
Nov '2614%
Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after November 2026 meeting?
Nov '261%
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?
Nov '260%
Fed holds at the Dec 2026 meetingKalshi
Dec '2626%
Fed holds at the Dec 2026 meetingPolymarket
Dec '2626%
Fed hikes 25bps at the Dec 2026 meeting
Dec '2673%
Fed cuts 25bps at the Dec 2026 meeting
Dec '261%
Fed cuts 50+bps after the Dec 2026 meeting
Dec '260%
Fed hikes 50+bps after the Dec 2026 meeting
Dec '262%
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Dec '2672%
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Dec '2625%
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?
Dec '2664%
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement?
Dec '2637%
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Dec '2673%
Will the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread be above 1.00% between Issuance and December 31, 2026?
Dec '262%
Fed lower bound ≤2.75% before 2027
Dec '262%
Fed lower bound ≤3.0% before 2027
Dec '262%
Fed lower bound ≤2.5% before 2027
Dec '262%
Fed upper bound ≥4.25% before 2027
Dec '2671%
Fed upper bound ≥5.25% before 2027
Dec '262%
Fed lower bound ≤0.25% before 2027
Dec '262%
Fed lower bound ≤0.5% before 2027
Dec '263%
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027?
Dec '2636%
Fed lower bound ≤3.25% before 2027
Dec '262%
Fed upper bound ≥4.75% before 2027
Dec '262%
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027?
Dec '2612%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?
Dec '265%
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% before 2027?
Dec '2617%
Fed upper bound ≥5.5% before 2027
Dec '262%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?
Dec '265%
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.45% before 2027?
Dec '2636%
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027?
Dec '265%
Fed cuts rates before 2027
Jan '273%
Will the Fed have an emergency meeting before Jan 1, 2027?
Jan '274%
Will the Bank of England raise the Bank Rate before 2027?
Jan '2799%
No Fed rate cuts in 2026
Jan '2797%
11 Fed rate cuts in 2026
Jan '270%
10 Fed rate cuts in 2026
Jan '270%
9 Fed rate cuts in 2026
Jan '270%
6 Fed rate cuts in 2026
Jan '270%
12+ Fed rate cuts in 2026
Jan '270%
1 Fed rate cut in 2026
Jan '271%
7 Fed rate cuts in 2026
Jan '270%
2 Fed rate cuts in 2026
Jan '270%
8 Fed rate cuts in 2026
Jan '270%
5 Fed rate cuts in 2026
Jan '270%
3 Fed rate cuts in 2026
Jan '270%
4 Fed rate cuts in 2026
Jan '270%
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
Jan '272%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?
Jan '2710%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?
Jan '275%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?
Jan '273%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?
Jan '2722%
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?
Jan '2782%
Bank of England rate hike in 2026?
Jan '2798%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.8% before 2027?
Jan '2762%
Fed hikes 25bps at the Jan 2027 meetingKalshi
Jan '2725%
Fed funds >6.00% after the Jan 2027 meeting
Jan '2710%
Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?
Jan '2762%
Fed hikes 25bps at the Jan 2027 meetingPolymarket
Jan '2726%
Fed holds at the Jan 2027 meeting
Jan '2770%
Fed cuts 50+bps after the Jan 2027 meeting
Jan '271%
Fed cuts 25bps at the Jan 2027 meeting
Jan '272%
Fed hikes 50+bps after the Jan 2027 meeting
Jan '271%
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
Jan '271%
Fed hikes 25bps at the Mar 2027 meeting
Mar '2747%
Fed funds >4.25% after the Mar 2027 meeting
Mar '2775%
Fed funds >3.50% after the Apr 2027 meeting
Apr '2794%
Fed hikes >25bps at the Apr 2027 meeting
Apr '272%
Fed funds >4.25% after the Jun 2027 meeting
Jun '2794%
Fed cuts >25bps at the Jun 2027 meeting
Jun '276%
Fed holds at the Jul 2027 meeting
Jul '2772%
Fed funds >2.50% after the Jul 2027 meeting
Jul '2799%
Fed holds at the Sep 2027 meeting
Sep '2783%
Fed funds >4.50% after the Sep 2027 meeting
Sep '2777%
Fed cuts 25bps at the Oct 2027 meeting
Oct '272%
Fed funds >4.00% after the Oct 2027 meeting
Oct '2798%
Fed hikes >25bps at the Dec 2027 meeting
Dec '273%
Fed funds >4.00% after the Dec 2027 meeting
Dec '2775%
Fed hikes >25bps at the Jan 2028 meeting
Jan '289%
Fed funds >3.25% after the Jan 2028 meeting
Jan '2860%

86 dated markets · sorted by resolution date · dot size ∝ volume · colour = theme.