Timeline

Term structure of priced macro risk: every market laid out by when it resolves, carrying its implied probability. Dot size = volume.

Fed holds at the Oct 2026 meetingKalshi
Oct '2644%
Fed holds at the Oct 2026 meetingPolymarket
Oct '2644%
Fed hikes 25bps at the Oct 2026 meeting
Oct '2656%
Fed cuts 25bps at the Oct 2026 meeting
Oct '261%
Fed cuts 50+bps after the Oct 2026 meeting
Oct '260%
Fed hikes 50+bps after the Oct 2026 meeting
Oct '261%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?
Oct '2648%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Oct '2683%
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?
Nov '261%
Fed holds at the Dec 2026 meetingKalshi
Dec '2631%
Fed hikes 25bps at the Dec 2026 meeting
Dec '2668%
Fed cuts 25bps at the Dec 2026 meeting
Dec '262%
Fed holds at the Dec 2026 meetingPolymarket
Dec '2631%
Fed cuts 50+bps after the Dec 2026 meeting
Dec '260%
Fed hikes 50+bps after the Dec 2026 meeting
Dec '261%
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Dec '2684%
Will the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread be above 1.00% between Issuance and December 31, 2026?
Dec '2621%
No Fed rate cuts in 2026
Dec '2695%
11 Fed rate cuts in 2026
Dec '260%
10 Fed rate cuts in 2026
Dec '260%
9 Fed rate cuts in 2026
Dec '260%
6 Fed rate cuts in 2026
Dec '260%
12+ Fed rate cuts in 2026
Dec '260%
7 Fed rate cuts in 2026
Dec '260%
8 Fed rate cuts in 2026
Dec '260%
2 Fed rate cuts in 2026
Dec '260%
1 Fed rate cut in 2026
Dec '262%
5 Fed rate cuts in 2026
Dec '260%
3 Fed rate cuts in 2026
Dec '260%
4 Fed rate cuts in 2026
Dec '260%
Fed lower bound ≤2.75% before 2027
Dec '262%
Fed lower bound ≤3.0% before 2027
Dec '261%
Fed lower bound ≤2.5% before 2027
Dec '261%
Fed upper bound ≥5.25% before 2027
Dec '263%
Fed lower bound ≤0.25% before 2027
Dec '262%
Fed upper bound ≥4.25% before 2027
Dec '2681%
Fed lower bound ≤0.5% before 2027
Dec '262%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?
Dec '2645%
Fed lower bound ≤3.25% before 2027
Dec '265%
Fed upper bound ≥4.75% before 2027
Dec '265%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?
Dec '265%
Fed upper bound ≥5.5% before 2027
Dec '263%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?
Dec '265%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?
Dec '2610%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% before 2027?
Dec '262%
Fed lower bound ≤2.25% before 2027
Dec '262%
Fed cuts rates before 2027
Jan '275%
Will the Fed have an emergency meeting before Jan 1, 2027?
Jan '278%
Will the Bank of England raise the Bank Rate before 2027?
Jan '2783%
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
Jan '273%
Bank of England rate hike in 2026?
Jan '2784%
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
Jan '273%
Fed holds at the Jan 2027 meeting
Jan '2761%
Fed funds >6.00% after the Jan 2027 meeting
Jan '2750%
Fed holds at the Mar 2027 meeting
Mar '2766%
Fed funds >3.25% after the Mar 2027 meeting
Mar '2784%
Fed hikes >25bps at the Apr 2027 meeting
Apr '273%
Fed funds >3.50% after the Apr 2027 meeting
Apr '2787%
Fed cuts >25bps at the Jun 2027 meeting
Jun '2728%
Fed funds >6.00% after the Jun 2027 meeting
Jun '2750%
Fed cuts >25bps at the Jul 2027 meeting
Jul '271%
Fed funds >6.00% after the Jul 2027 meeting
Jul '2750%
Fed cuts >25bps at the Sep 2027 meeting
Sep '274%
Fed funds >6.00% after the Sep 2027 meeting
Sep '2750%
Fed cuts 25bps at the Oct 2027 meeting
Oct '277%
Fed funds >6.00% after the Oct 2027 meeting
Oct '2750%
Fed hikes >25bps at the Dec 2027 meeting
Dec '278%
Fed funds >6.00% after the Dec 2027 meeting
Dec '2750%
Fed hikes >25bps at the Jan 2028 meeting
Jan '289%
Fed funds >6.00% after the Jan 2028 meeting
Jan '2850%

70 dated markets · sorted by resolution date · dot size ∝ volume · colour = theme.