Relative value

Market-implied strike ladders - the probability across thresholds for each macro metric (in effect, the market's implied distribution). A family must be monotone: a higher "above" threshold can only be less likely. Any rung priced richer than a lower one is a logical inconsistency, flagged in amber.

12 ladders with an inconsistency right now. For information only - not financial advice.

Implied distribution - CPI inflation, Nov 2026

The featured CPI ladder's strikes turned into a probability histogram: where the market thinks the print lands.

Now

Implied probability that CPI inflation for Nov 2026 lands in each range, derived from the P(value > threshold) strike ladder. Open end buckets (< lowest and > highest strike) carry the tail mass.

Oil price

Nov 2026 · P(value > threshold)

inconsistency

> $57.9999%
> $58.4975%
> $58.9998%
> $59.4975%
> $59.9998%
> $60.4998%
> $60.9998%
> $61.4998%
> $61.9998%
> $62.4999%
> $62.9999%
> $63.4999%
> $63.9999%
> $64.4999%
> $64.9999%
> $65.4999%
> $65.9999%
> $66.4999%
> $66.9999%
> $67.4999%
> $67.9999%
> $68.4999%
> $68.9999%
> $69.4999%
> $69.9999%
> $70.4999%
> $70.9999%
> $71.4999%
> $71.9999%
> $72.4999%
> $72.9997%
> $73.9999%
> $74.9999%
> $75.9994%
> $76.9998%
> $77.9999%
> $78.9998%
> $79.9999%
> $80.9998%
> $81.9999%
> $82.9999%
> $83.9999%
> $84.9996%
> $85.9999%
> $86.9999%
> $87.9998%
> $88.9997%
> $89.9994%
> $90.9992%
> $91.4991%
> $91.9992%
> $92.4990%
> $92.9983%
> $93.4984%
> $93.9976%
> $94.4975%
> $94.9968%
> $95.4958%
> $95.9974%
> $96.4953%
> $96.9944%
> $97.4938%
> $97.9937%
> $98.4920%
> $98.9925%
> $99.4914%
> $99.9922%
> $100.4911%
> $100.9913%
> $101.4927%
> $101.997%
> $102.492%
> $102.994%
> $103.491%
> $103.991%
> $104.495%
> $104.9912%
> $105.493%
> $105.991%
> $106.491%
> $106.992%
> $107.491%
> $107.991%
> $108.492%
> $108.993%
> $109.491%
> $109.991%
> $110.492%
> $110.991%
> $111.992%
> $112.991%
> $113.991%
> $114.991%
> $115.992%
> $116.994%

CPI inflation

Nov 2026 · P(value > threshold)

inconsistency

> 3%99%
> 3.1%99%
> 3.2%98%
> 3.3%97%
> 3.4%97%
> 3.5%92%
> 3.6%87%
> 3.7%75%
> 3.8%61%
> 3.9%41%
> 4%31%
> 4.1%23%
> 4.2%12%
> 4.3%5%
> 4.4%11%
> 4.5%3%
> 4.6%5%
> 4.7%2%
> 4.8%2%
> 4.9%1%
> 5%1%

CPI inflation

Dec 2026 · P(value > threshold)

inconsistency

> 3%96%
> 3.1%95%
> 3.2%92%
> 3.3%95%
> 3.4%90%
> 3.5%87%
> 3.6%84%
> 3.7%66%
> 3.8%68%
> 3.9%37%
> 4%41%
> 4.1%32%
> 4.2%24%
> 4.3%14%
> 4.4%10%
> 4.5%7%
> 4.6%2%
> 4.7%6%
> 4.8%6%
> 4.9%5%
> 5%2%

Fed upper bound

Apr 2027 · P(value > threshold)

inconsistency

> 0%98%
> 0.25%99%
> 0.5%98%
> 0.75%92%
> 1%97%
> 1.25%93%
> 1.5%99%
> 1.75%98%
> 2%98%
> 2.25%99%
> 2.5%89%
> 2.75%89%
> 3%98%
> 3.25%87%
> 3.5%94%
> 3.75%97%
> 4%23%
> 4.25%69%
> 4.5%2%
> 4.75%46%
> 5%3%
> 5.25%38%
> 5.5%83%
> 5.75%31%
> 6%56%

Fed upper bound

Dec 2027 · P(value > threshold)

inconsistency

> 0%99%
> 0.25%99%
> 0.5%99%
> 0.75%99%
> 1%99%
> 1.25%99%
> 1.5%99%
> 1.75%99%
> 2%99%
> 2.25%99%
> 2.5%99%
> 2.75%99%
> 3%99%
> 3.25%99%
> 3.5%90%
> 3.75%89%
> 4%75%
> 4.25%75%
> 4.5%94%
> 4.75%49%
> 5%43%
> 5.25%29%
> 5.5%30%
> 5.75%95%
> 6%28%

Fed upper bound

Mar 2027 · P(value > threshold)

inconsistency

> 1.75%93%
> 2%99%
> 2.25%86%
> 2.5%99%
> 2.75%96%
> 3%96%
> 3.25%97%
> 3.5%97%
> 3.75%97%
> 4%92%
> 4.25%75%
> 4.5%23%
> 4.75%81%
> 5%25%
> 5.25%6%
> 5.5%21%
> 5.75%10%
> 6%4%

Fed upper bound

Jun 2027 · P(value > threshold)

inconsistency

> 0%97%
> 0.25%95%
> 0.5%99%
> 0.75%99%
> 1%99%
> 1.25%99%
> 1.5%99%
> 1.75%99%
> 2%94%
> 2.25%93%
> 2.5%91%
> 2.75%91%
> 3%91%
> 3.25%94%
> 3.5%83%
> 3.75%82%
> 4%93%
> 4.25%94%
> 4.5%78%
> 4.75%21%
> 5%36%
> 5.25%31%
> 5.5%34%
> 5.75%31%
> 6%53%

Fed upper bound

Oct 2027 · P(value > threshold)

inconsistency

> 0%92%
> 0.25%99%
> 0.5%99%
> 0.75%99%
> 1%99%
> 1.25%99%
> 1.5%99%
> 1.75%99%
> 2%99%
> 2.25%99%
> 2.5%99%
> 2.75%99%
> 3%99%
> 3.25%99%
> 3.5%87%
> 3.75%66%
> 4%98%
> 4.25%94%
> 4.5%82%
> 4.75%91%
> 5%42%
> 5.25%39%
> 5.5%35%
> 5.75%32%
> 6%28%

Fed upper bound

Sep 2027 · P(value > threshold)

inconsistency

> 0%99%
> 0.25%99%
> 0.5%99%
> 0.75%99%
> 1%99%
> 1.25%99%
> 1.5%99%
> 1.75%99%
> 2%99%
> 2.25%99%
> 2.5%99%
> 2.75%99%
> 3%99%
> 3.25%60%
> 3.5%69%
> 3.75%66%
> 4%93%
> 4.25%60%
> 4.5%77%
> 4.75%49%
> 5%42%
> 5.25%39%
> 5.5%35%
> 5.75%32%
> 6%28%

Fed upper bound

Jan 2028 · P(value > threshold)

inconsistency

> 0%99%
> 0.25%99%
> 0.5%99%
> 0.75%99%
> 1%99%
> 1.25%99%
> 1.5%99%
> 1.75%99%
> 2%99%
> 2.25%99%
> 2.5%99%
> 2.75%99%
> 3%99%
> 3.25%60%
> 3.5%84%
> 3.75%66%
> 4%63%
> 4.25%59%
> 4.5%53%
> 4.75%49%
> 5%43%
> 5.25%40%
> 5.5%35%
> 5.75%32%
> 6%28%

Fed upper bound

Jan 2027 · P(value > threshold)

inconsistency

> 4.5%70%
> 4.75%35%
> 5%8%
> 5.25%13%
> 5.5%6%
> 5.75%6%
> 6%10%

Fed upper bound

Jul 2027 · P(value > threshold)

inconsistency

> 0%99%
> 0.25%99%
> 0.5%99%
> 0.75%99%
> 1%99%
> 1.25%99%
> 1.5%99%
> 1.75%99%
> 2%99%
> 2.25%99%
> 2.5%99%
> 2.75%99%
> 3%99%
> 3.25%99%
> 3.5%70%
> 3.75%67%
> 4%63%
> 4.25%60%
> 4.5%81%
> 4.75%45%
> 5%41%
> 5.25%38%
> 5.5%35%
> 5.75%31%
> 6%28%

CPI inflation

2026 · P(value > threshold)

> 4.5%18%
> 5%8%
> 6%3%
> 10%1%

Unemployment

2026 · P(value > threshold)

> 5%3%
> 5.5%2%
> 6%1%
> 10%2%

GDP growth

2026 · P(value > threshold)

> 0%94%
> 0.5%92%
> 1%90%
> 1.5%84%
> 2%75%
> 2.5%63%
> 3%52%
> 3.5%30%
> 4%16%
> 9%0%

GDP growth

2027 · P(value > threshold)

> 0%93%
> 0.5%88%
> 1%77%
> 1.5%67%
> 2%50%
> 2.5%44%
> 3%35%
> 3.5%12%
> 4%13%