Relative value

Market-implied strike ladders - the probability across thresholds for each macro metric (in effect, the market's implied distribution). A family must be monotone: a higher "above" threshold can only be less likely. Any rung priced richer than a lower one is a logical inconsistency, flagged in amber.

3 ladders with an inconsistency right now. For information only - not financial advice.

Implied distribution - CPI inflation, Sep 2026

The featured CPI ladder's strikes turned into a probability histogram: where the market thinks the print lands.

Now

Implied probability that CPI inflation for Sep 2026 lands in each range, derived from the P(value > threshold) strike ladder. Open end buckets (< lowest and > highest strike) carry the tail mass.

GDP growth

2026 · P(value > threshold)

inconsistency

> 0%96%
> 0.5%97%
> 1%92%
> 1.5%84%
> 2%80%
> 2.5%67%
> 3%55%
> 3.5%13%
> 4%23%
> 9%1%

Fed upper bound

2027 · P(value > threshold)

inconsistency

> 0%99%
> 0.25%99%
> 0.5%99%
> 0.75%97%
> 1%95%
> 1.25%91%
> 1.5%92%
> 1.75%92%
> 2%91%
> 2.25%92%
> 2.5%88%
> 2.75%99%
> 3%80%
> 3.25%80%
> 3.5%87%
> 3.75%89%
> 4%80%
> 4.25%36%
> 4.5%50%
> 4.75%50%
> 5%50%
> 5.25%50%
> 5.5%50%
> 5.75%50%
> 6%50%

CPI inflation

Dec 2026 · P(value > threshold)

inconsistency

> 3%96%
> 3.1%94%
> 3.2%90%
> 3.3%86%
> 3.4%81%
> 3.5%75%
> 3.6%65%
> 3.7%60%
> 3.8%49%
> 3.9%43%
> 4%83%
> 4.1%24%
> 4.2%20%
> 4.3%22%
> 4.4%10%
> 4.5%15%
> 4.6%18%
> 4.7%55%
> 4.8%9%
> 4.9%19%
> 5%8%

CPI inflation

2026 · P(value > threshold)

> 4.5%20%
> 5%9%
> 6%5%
> 8%3%
> 10%3%

Unemployment

2026 · P(value > threshold)

> 5%9%
> 5.5%7%
> 6%6%
> 10%4%

CPI inflation

Sep 2026 · P(value > threshold)

> 3%97%
> 3.1%98%
> 3.2%98%
> 3.3%98%
> 3.4%95%
> 3.5%81%
> 3.6%46%
> 3.7%29%
> 3.8%8%
> 3.9%1%
> 4%1%
> 4.1%1%
> 4.2%1%
> 4.3%1%
> 4.4%1%
> 4.5%1%
> 4.6%1%
> 4.7%1%
> 4.8%1%
> 4.9%1%
> 5%1%

GDP growth

2027 · P(value > threshold)

> 0%95%
> 0.5%76%
> 1%68%
> 1.5%62%
> 2%52%
> 2.5%42%
> 3%22%
> 3.5%13%
> 4%2%

CPI inflation

Nov 2026 · P(value > threshold)

> 3%95%
> 3.1%97%
> 3.2%98%
> 3.3%87%
> 3.4%75%
> 3.5%70%
> 3.6%58%
> 3.7%54%
> 3.8%35%
> 3.9%33%
> 4%17%
> 4.1%11%
> 4.2%12%
> 4.3%12%
> 4.4%10%
> 4.5%2%
> 4.6%4%
> 4.7%4%
> 4.8%4%
> 4.9%1%
> 5%1%

Fed upper bound

2028 · P(value > threshold)

> 0%50%
> 0.25%50%
> 0.5%50%
> 0.75%50%
> 1%50%
> 1.25%50%
> 1.5%50%
> 1.75%50%
> 2%50%
> 2.25%50%
> 2.5%50%
> 2.75%50%
> 3%50%
> 3.25%50%
> 3.5%50%
> 3.75%50%
> 4%50%
> 4.25%50%
> 4.5%50%
> 4.75%50%
> 5%50%
> 5.25%50%
> 5.5%50%
> 5.75%50%
> 6%50%