Kalshi vs Polymarket

Where both venues price the exact same outcome, side by side. The gap is how far the two venues disagree - not risk-free arbitrage; resolution terms, fees and settlement differ between platforms.

Hold at the 2027-01 meeting
Kalshi71.0%Polymarket69.5%
1.5pp apart· Polymarket prices it lower

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their January 2027 meeting? · Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?

Cut 25bps at the 2026-12 meeting
Kalshi2.0%Polymarket0.5%
1.5pp apart· Polymarket prices it lower

Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting? · Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

Hold at the 2026-12 meeting
Kalshi26.0%Polymarket25.5%
0.5pp apart· Polymarket prices it lower

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting? · Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?

Hike 25bps at the 2026-12 meeting
Kalshi72.0%Polymarket72.5%
0.5pp apart· Kalshi prices it lower

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting? · Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

Hike 25bps at the 2027-01 meeting
Kalshi25.0%Polymarket25.5%
0.5pp apart· Kalshi prices it lower

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their January 2027 meeting? · Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?

At least one Fed cut in 2026
Kalshi2.7%PolymarketNO side3.1%
0.4pp apart· Kalshi prices it lower

Will the Federal Reserve cut rates before 2027? · Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Cut 25bps at the 2027-01 meeting
Kalshi2.0%Polymarket2.1%
0.1pp apart· Kalshi prices it lower

Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their January 2027 meeting? · Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?

Matched on identical outcomes (Fed decisions, recession) only. For information only - not financial advice.